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Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Chargers +3.5 

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: 49ers/Seahawks UNDER 46.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The 49ers and Seahawks squared off three times last season after meeting in the playoffs, too.  Looking at the history of this series it has been a dead nuts UNDER when these division rivals get together.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 37, 30, 16 and 47 combined points.  They combined for just 566 total yards in that 37-point meeting, 614 yards in that 30-point meeting, 534 yards in that 16-point meeting and 517 yards in that 47-point meeting.  It took a miracle to get 47 combined points in that playoff meeting last year with the Seahawks winning 41-6 while benefitting from a 95-yard kickoff return TD to open the game.  The 49ers gifted them some easy points with three turnovers as well.

This season, these have been two of the best defenses in the NFL, so it should be more of the same especially with the 49ers much healthier on defense than they were in the playoffs last season.  San Francisco ranks 3rd in scoring defense at 16.0 points per game, 7th in total defense at 308.8 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play allowed.  Having Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw back healthy and leading the defense this season has made all the difference.

Seattle has been even better and is actually nearly at full strength on defense.  The Seahawks rank 5th in scoring defense at 18.2 points per game, 1st in total defense at 246.8 yards per game and 1st at 4.2 yards per play allowed.  They have all hands on deck defensively with the exception of one starting CB position, but they have proven they have plenty of depth in the secondary to make up for it.

The 49ers rank well offensively this season, but the injuries continue to pile up for them, and I think they have benefited from a soft schedule of opposing defenses.  Mike Evans is playing hurt, and they are down five receivers plus FB Kyle Juszczyk, who is one of the most underrated players in the league for what he does for this Kyle Shanahan offense.  The Seahawks really miss Kenneth Walker as their running game has been a major disappointment this season.  It doesn't help that they remain without Zach Charbonnet, first-round pick Price, and having George Holani questionable heading into this one.

There will be double-digit winds in Seattle to affect the passing and kicking games as well to aid us in cashing this UNDER 46.5 ticket.  I expect another defensive grinder between these NFC West rivals this afternoon.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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1* Free Pick on 49ers/Seahawks: over 45½

These two offenses are combining for almost 57 points a game and the total sits at 45.5.

That gap is the whole bet.

The 49ers are 4-0 and scoring 30.5 a game.

Brock Purdy leads the league with 11 touchdown passes and hasn't taken a sack through four games.

When the quarterback is clean and protected, points follow.

The weapons are rolling too.

George Kittle has at least 70 receiving yards in three straight games.

Christian McCaffrey has 4 rushing touchdowns and 340 total yards.

Mike Evans is active after clearing the injury report.

Seattle is scoring 26.25 a game and has hit 30 or more in three of four, including 30 on the Chargers last week.

Sam Darnold's offense isn't the run-heavy grinder people remember.

Now the real driver: San Francisco's defense is stripped down.

Nick Bosa is out.

DT James Thompson Jr. misses a third straight game.

Safety Marques Sigle is out.

Slot corner Upton Stout is questionable with an AC joint sprain and unlikely to go after one limited practice.

That's the pass rush and the secondary both compromised on the road.

Recent results back the number too.

The 49ers' game with the Cardinals two weeks ago landed on 66.

Seattle's trip to Washington produced 64.

Both offenses keep finding themselves in games that clear this total with room.

Two healthy, efficient offenses.

One banged-up defense.

A total priced below what both teams have been producing all season.

I like the Over

1* NFL - Giants/Commanders FREE PICK on Commanders -3.5

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Minnesota Vikings ML -130

The fact that the Vikings have a bye on deck next week should have them focused and hungry to go into the bye 5-0.  They no question have the best unit on the field in their defense, which is holding opponents to 12.8 points per game.  The Saints are giving up 32.0 points per game and their defense is the worst unit on the field.  I think offensively it's much closer to even especially with all the offensive line injuries the Saints are dealing with, plus losing their only explosive RB in Etienne.  Tyler Shough is going to be under duress all game.  He was harassed in a 45-24 loss to the Falcons on Monday Night Football, and now he has to come back on a short week here.  The Saints are also extremely banged up defensively missing two of their best players in LD Elliss and LB Jennings, plus three other starters are questionable in NT Shepherd, DE Broughton and FS Blackmon.  The Vikings should finally get right on offense this week with their best performance of the season against this New Orleans defense.  Give me the Vikings on the Money Line.

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The under in London is the number the injury report already priced, and then stopped short of. Philadelphia and Jacksonville are at Tottenham on Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET. The Jaguars are 3-1 and laying 7.5, about -370. The Eagles are 2-2 and getting 7.5, about +295. The total opened 44.5. It is 41.5 or 42 now. Pro-football-reference has the game at 42. That two-point drop is the market admitting the Eagles cannot score. It is not enough of a drop.

Philadelphia is the reason. They are at 18.8 points a game, 26th, and 178.3 passing yards, 30th. Jalen Hurts has 713 yards through the air. Saquon Barkley has 182 on the ground and is not expected to play. Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve. DeVonta Smith, the leading receiver at 235 yards, is questionable with a hamstring. Dallas Goedert is questionable. Hollywood Brown is questionable. Lane Johnson retired. Cam Jurgens was traded. The center is questionable. That is a third-string back, a third center, and a receiver room held together with hope, on a seven-hour flight, for a 9:30 kick. Last week they put up 20 in the first half against the Rams and got shut out in the second. The final was 24-20. A team that can go silent for 30 minutes at home is not a team you buy the over on in London.

Jacksonville is the other half, and it is not a pinball defense. They have allowed 53 points in four games, 13.3 a game, and they lead the league with six interceptions. Trevor Lawrence is completing 69.2 percent with eight touchdowns and two picks. Bhayshul Tuten is the run game. Liam Coen's group is 3-1 and playing like it. A short Eagles offense against a defense that has not given up 20 a game is how a 42 becomes a 34. The Jaguars can win this and still leave the over dead. That is the entire bet.

The spread is the sucker ticket sitting next to it. The look-ahead was Jacksonville -4.5. It is -7.5 because Barkley and Smith hit the report. Laying more than a touchdown at Tottenham, after a three-point steam, on a morning kick, is how London games eat a card. Jacksonville is the better team. The total is the number that matches the bodies.

Bet the under in an NFL game in London when one team is under 20 points a game and missing its lead back. The Eagles' scoring this season: 18.8 a game through four, 26th. The only recent page is a 24-20 loss in which the second half was a zero. One shutout half is not a system. It is the last tape, and the total has already moved two points toward it.

Bet the under against a defense allowing 14 or fewer points a game when the opponent is ranked 25th or worse in scoring. Jacksonville has allowed 53 points in four games, 13.3. Philadelphia is 26th in scoring. The posted total is 42, down from 44.5. Average points in a Jaguars game so far sits near 26 if you only count what they have given up and what a bottom-five offense has managed. The 42 is still a gift.

Shop it. A 42 is the number. A 41.5 is better. If it drifts back to 43 because the public sees Trevor Lawrence and a London shootout that is not on the sheet, take the under and ignore the story. Do not pair it with the Jaguars -7.5. The side is a different bet, and the juice on that moneyline is a tax. The total is the one the injury report wrote and the board only half believed.

NFL BETTING UPDATE REPORT: Four weeks. Sixty-four games into the NFL season. The sheet is already talking, and it is not talking for the favorite. This is the tape. It is not a card. Home clubs are winning 56.3 percent straight up. That is the building. It is not the number. Favorites against the spread are 26–34–4, 43.8 percent, minus-10.4 units. Underdogs are 34–26–4, 56.3 percent, plus-5.0 units. The public is still laying the logo. The logo is still missing the hook. Week by week the fade got louder. Favorites covered 60 percent in Week 1, 50 percent in Week 2, 37.5 percent in Week 3, and 26.7 percent in Week 4. That is not a one-Sunday blip. That is a month of chalk failing to cash. Underdogs against the spread through the first four weeks of 2026 are 34–26–4 (56.3 percent). Favorites are 26–34–4 (43.8 percent). (+5.0 unit$ on the dog side. The favorite side is minus-10.4 units.) The cleanest cut is the division dog. Divisional underdogs are 12–5 against the spread, 70.6 percent, plus-6.1 units. Divisional favorites are 5–12, 29.4 percent, minus-7.5 units. Same games. Opposite side of the ticket. A division Sunday has not been a spot where the bigger logo covered just for being the bigger logo. Divisional dogs against the spread in 2026, through Week 4: 12–5 (70.6 percent). The favorite side of those games is 5–12. (+6.1 unit$, ROI=33.9% on the dog.) Prime time is the other split. Prime-time dogs are 9–3–1 against the spread, 73.1 percent, plus-5.2 units. Prime-time favorites are 3–9–1, 26.9 percent, minus-6.3 units. A national window is how the home chalk gets the tickets. It has not been how the chalk covers. Prime-time dogs against the spread in 2026: 9–3–1 (73.1 percent). Prime-time favorites: 3–9–1 (26.9 percent). (+5.2 unit$, ROI=36.1% on the dog.) Home dogs are 14–9–1, 60.4 percent, plus-3.7 units. Road dogs are 20–17–3, a lean, not a hammer. Road favorites are 9–14–1, 39.6 percent, minus-5.8 units. Laying a number on the road has been the worst regular job on the board. Double-digit favorites are 1–2 against the spread. The truck has not been a cover. Home favorites are 17–20–3, 46.3 percent, minus-4.6 units. Road favorites in 2026 are 9–14–1 ATS (39.6 percent), minus-5.8 units. Home dogs are 14–9–1 (60.4 percent), plus-3.7 units. Totals are a coin flip with a split inside it. Overs and unders sit at 32–32 on one sheet and 31–32 on another. Average combined score is 46.2. Games posted over 50 have gone over 5–2, 71.4 percent, plus-2.5 units. Games posted 40 or under have gone over only 2–4, 33.3 percent, so the under in that band is 4–2. The short number has lived low. The fat number has lived high. Prime-time overs are 8–5. That fights the side. Prime-time dogs have covered. Prime-time games have still found points. Games posted over 50 through four weeks: overs 5–2 (71.4 percent). (+2.5 unit$, ROI=32.1%.) Games posted 40 or lower: overs 2–4 (33.3 percent). The under is 4–2. (−2.2 units on the over side of that band.) The team sheet has one perfect cover club. The Raiders are 4–0 against the spread and 3–1 straight up, covered as a favorite and as a dog. The 49ers are 4–0 and 3–1 against the number. The Colts and Bears are 3–1 against the spread. That is the 2026 tape. A perfect cover month is not the same thing as the next number. The historical rhyme is the one this league has sung for years. Home dogs in the mid-50s to 60 percent against the number. Favorites closer to a coin flip once the juice is in. A 43.8 percent favorite-cover rate through four weeks is the low end of that range, not a new sport. Week 4 at 26.7 percent is the extreme. A 26.7 does not have to repeat for the first-month split to still be the split.

Bengals vs Dolphins NFL Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) are being asked to lay a big number on the road, and I don’t think this offense has earned that right now. They’ve lost two straight, including a 22-17 home loss to Jacksonville last week in which they ran for just 23 yards on 15 carries. A one-dimensional Bengals offense with hobbled receivers is not built to pull away from anybody.

The Miami Dolphins (0-4) are winless and nobody wants any part of them, which is exactly why this number is so inflated. Their schedule has been brutal, with three of four on the road and the Chiefs as the lone home game. The defense is quietly playing well. They held the Vikings to 15 points last week and covered as double-digit underdogs, and they rank eighth against the run.

The Bet: Dolphins ATS (3%). 

Mike's coming off a 6-2 Saturday, with several outright underdog winners at generous plus-money odds! Don't miss Sunday's card, including a 5% NFL MAX BET!

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Bettors won't want any part of the Raiders here after the air was let out of their balloon in their first loss of the season last week against the Chiefs. The Patriots are back in bettors' good graces after staging an 'upset' win in Buffalo last Sunday. Add in the fact that we have the overplayed west coast team playing in an early game on the east coast angle at work and it's easy to understand why the Raiders are catching more than a field goal here (at the time of writing). Most bettors have forgotten that Las Vegas nearly pulled off an 'upset' victory in a pointspread cover here in Foxborough way back in Week 1 of last season. That was a much weaker Raiders team while the Patriots would ultimately represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Look for the Raiders to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Las Vegas.

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 The NFL Comp play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers at 1 eastern. Rob notes that road teams like the Colts that a dog of 7 or less are 1-5 straight up and to the spread coming off a neutral site game with less than 5 days rest. That system was perfect since 2003 until last week when Dallas came back to beat Houston. Pittsburgh has won 9 of 10 at home vs the Colts in the series. The Steelers have won and covered 4 of 5 at home off a loss. The Colts are 1-8 as a road dog off a win. The Steelers have been solid winning their first two here and if they could contain The Colts run game and Taylor they should get a cover here. Play on Pittsburgh. GL Rob V-

There is going to be a lot of passing in this game. The Packers heavily rely on Jordan Love and his three excellent receivers - Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft - because they can't run the ball. Love has thrown multiple TD passes every game this season.

The Packers' vulnerable offensive line gave up zero sacks and only two hits on 30 pass attempts against the Buccaneers last week. The Bears do not have a big pass rush. 

Statistically the Bears have improved their defense since giving up a shocking 37 points and 478 yards to the Panthers in Week 1. But I am not sold on Chicago's defense. Since then, the Bears got to play the Vikings in a rainstorm, went against a broken Eagles offense and a Jets offense that was missing Breece Hall and had Geno Smith play his worst game of the year.

The Bears are going to do damage against Green Bay's defense even with backup quarterback Tyson Bagent. He is surrounded by excellent skill position players and will be passing more this week in his second start of the season. The Packers are without their top linebacker, injured Edgerrin Cooper.

Ricky's 1* play on MCI.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Manchester City are 7-0 in their last 7 games.

- cody gakpo and alexander isak will be out for Liverpool in this game.
  
- Manchester City have scored 10 goals in their last 2 games.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Houston Texans -7

The Key: The Houston Texans are one of the best 0-4 teams in the NFL history.  The Tennessee Titans are deserving of their 0-4 record.  The Texans had a chance to get a stop with a lead in the final seconds in 3 of their 4 losses this season against a tough schedule of the Bills, Bengals, Colts and Cowboys.  This will be a big step down in competition for the Texans.  The Titans have losses to the Jets, Eagles, Giants and Ravens so their schedule has been much softer.  Their offense is one of the worst in the league.  Injuries have been a problem for the Texans, but they are about as healthy as they have been all season coming into this game.  Nico Collins is back healthy and the Texans thrive on offense when that's the case.  Their defense also looks fully healthy outside backups as they get LB Al Shaair back this week, and if you ask their locker room he is their most important player as their green dot and their enforcer in the middle.  The Titans will be without their best defender in the secondary in SS Amani Hooker, and their best receiver on offense in WR Carnell Tate is highly questionable as he has easily been Cam Ward's favorite target this season.  The Texans are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS n their last 7 matchups with the Titans.  Take Houston.

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